Schools Should Open Virtually Until Current Surge Subsides and More is Known about Virulence of New COVID Strain

I am urging all schools to start remotely this semester because I do not believe it is safe to open schools during the absolute peak of a worldwide pandemic, especially when a new virus strain is circulating that appears to be much more transmissible by children and teens.

Based on what I see as a clear consensus among epidemiology experts, I do not believe that it is safe to re-open schools for in-person classes and activities at this time. There are two primary bases for this opinion: 

1. We are at the absolute peak of the pandemic. When we opened in September, we were at a lull in the pandemic, with very low rates of community transmission. That could reasonably be used as a justification to bring students and teachers/staff into the classroom. However, right now we are in the midst of the worst surge in COVID-19 that has occurred since the start of the pandemic. The number of daily infections and hospitalizations is at an all-time high. Moreover, it is not even clear that we have reached the peak. Many of my colleagues are predicting that the current surge will not peak until mid- to late-January, especially after the fallout of holiday and New Year gatherings becomes apparent. 

Furthermore, even before the holidays, the situation in schools was quite dire. In Massachusetts, for example, during the last two weeks of classes before the winter break, there were nearly 2,000 (1,958) cases of COVID-19 reported among students and faculty/staff attending in-person at Massachusetts elementary and secondary schools. If these were the rates prior to the holidays, I can only imagine what we are going to see in the two weeks after the holidays, during which we know there was extensive travel and widespread family gatherings.

At my own institution (Boston University), which conducts perhaps the most extensive testing in the country, infection rates rose substantially during the winter recess, and early reports suggest that community spread of the virus is likely to be higher now than when students left campus in late December.

2. Preliminary data suggest that one of the new mutant strains of SARS-CoV-2 (the variant) is much more transmissible among children and teens, and this is expected to be the dominant strain nationally by the end of the month. Early data from the UK suggest that the B. 1. 1. 7. variant is substantially more transmissible among children and teenagers. This finding led the researchers to question whether “it will be possible to maintain control over transmission while allowing schools to reopen in January 2021." This new strain is projected to be widespread by the end of the month.

It is difficult for me to understand how one can justify reopening schools when, in Massachusetts during the two weeks prior to the break, 815 school employees were infected with COVID-19. And that is just the baseline rate prior to the holidays. We are truly risking the lives of teachers and school staff by forcing them to return to in-person classes right after the holidays and at a time when the case surge is at its single highest point in the entire pandemic. It’s not even clear that we have reached the peak yet. Furthermore, do we want our students to be the guinea pigs, and our classrooms to be the laboratories, to find out just how transmissible the new B. 1. 1. 7. variant is?

I therefore urge schools to delay the opening of in-person classes until:

1. Infection rates in their states are documented to have fallen steadily for at least four straight weeks; and 

2. We know enough about the variant strain and its transmissibility among young people to evaluate whether it is safe to re-open schools.

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